The K7RA Solar Update – 6-12-2015

06/12/2015

Solar activity strengthened during the past week. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 34.3 to 112.4, and average daily solar flux rose from 97.8 to 131.4. The middle latitude A index for June 10-11 can only be guessed, due to some sort of outage depriving us of K-index data over a 27 hour period. The outage began sometime after 1200 UTC June 9 and ended sometime before 1800 UTC June 10.

June 8 was the day with the most geomagnetic upset, when the planetary A index rose to 33.

Predicted planetary A index for the near term is 20, 15 and 16 on June 12-14, then 10, 8 and 6 on June 15-17, then 5 on June 18 through July 3. We then see another active period on July 4-9 when the predicted A index is 8, 20, 28, 20, 10 and 8, followed by 6, 5 and 8 on July 10-12, and 5 on July 13 and beyond.

At 0202 UTC on June 10 the Australian Space Forecast Centre predicted increased geomagnetic activity on June 12 due to a coronal mass ejection.

They issued a second warning at 0336 UTC predicting a glancing blow at earth early in the UTC day on June 12.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 140 on June 12-13, then 135, 130, 125, 120 and 115 on June 14-18, 120 on June 19-26, 115 on June 27, and 120 on June 28-29. The forecast then shows solar flux rising to 145 on July 5-7 before settling back to 120 after July 12.

Read the rest here -> The K7RA Solar Update.

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