The K7RA Solar Update

Bottom line: Not as bad as we thought it was going to be!

07/03/2015

Conditions over Field Day weekend turned out to be not bad at all. The expected geomagnetic upset never happened. On June 25-26, the Thursday and Friday before Field Day, the predicted planetary A index for the June 27-28 was 45 and 60, really bad conditions. The actual planetary A index on those dates was 9 and 13, and the mid-latitude A index was 8 and 12, nice moderate numbers.

Average solar flux over June 25 through July 1 was 100.7, down from 130.8 over the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 71.6 to 35.9.

There were no new sunspots on June 17-21, one new spot on June 22, none on June 23-27, two new sunspots on June 28, a new sunspot on June 29 and again on June 30, and two new sunspots on July 2. On July 1 there were 3 numbered sunspot groups and 5 on July 2. NOAA/USAF predicts geomagnetic activity at quiet levels on July 3, quiet to unsettled July 4 and unsettled to minor storm levels on July 5.

The latest solar flux prediction has 115 on July 3-5, 120 on July 6-9, 125 on July 10, 130 on July 11-19, then 115, 110 and 105 on July 20-22, 100 on July 23-26, 105 on July 27 through August 1, then flux values rise to 130 after August 6.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5, 8, 25, 15, and 8 on July 3-7, then 5 on July 8-10, then 18, 12 and 8 on July 11-13, then 5 on July 14-17, 8 on July 18-19, 5 on July 20-25, 8 on July 26, 5 on July 27 through August 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on August 2-4 and 8 on August 5-6.

Franz Janda, OK1HH, predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled July 3-4, active to disturbed July 5, quiet to active July 6, quiet to unsettled July 7, mostly quiet July 8-10, quiet to active July 11-12, quiet to unsettled July 13-14, quiet on July 15, mostly quiet July 16-17, quiet to unsettled July 18, quiet to active July 19, quiet to unsettled July 20-21, quiet July 22-23, and mostly quiet July 24-25. Franz expects increases in solar wind on July 5-6, July 10-12 and July 20-25.

More here:  The K7RA Solar Update.

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